The Story And Analysis Of Canada Express Entry Draws Since The Pandemic

 Canada Express Entry draws have remained the most preferred pathway since its introduction in 2015. Express Entry programs allow foreign skilled immigrants with or without a job offer or work experience in Canada to qualify for permanent residency (PR).

The federal government has consistently increased the intake targets under the Express Entry crossing 100,000 new immigrants in 2019.  

Even the coronavirus pandemic could not deter Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) to invite nearly 107,350 new permanent residents in 2020 and repeat the same in 2021. 

IRCC had to renovate its strategies and make significant changes in the way Express Entry draws were conducted earlier. 

Canada Express Entry draws soon after pandemic

IRCC scheduled a PNP-only draw on March 18, the same day Canada’s travel restrictions first went into effect. 

This would later go on to form a template for upcoming Express Entry draws, where IRCC would hold a small PNP-only draw with around 1000 intakes at a time, followed by a larger CEC-only draw size reaching upto 5,000 intakes at a time. 

In PNP-only Express Entry draws, candidates in the registered federal pool having prior provincial nominations were targeted. On the other hand, CEC-only Express Entry draws invited registered candidates who had at least one year of work experience in Canada and were present in the country. 

There was only one Federal Skilled Trades draw in 2020 that invited candidates who qualified for semi-skilled occupations and usually had lower qualifying scores. 

First all-program Express Entry draws in last 18 months

Canada has resumed all-program Express Entry draws as of July 6. So far, IRCC has held three all-program Express Entry draws inviting candidates under Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and also with provincial nomination. 

FSWP is significant because it allows direct pathway for Canada PR without a job offer or Canadian experience. 

Since then, the number of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) issued in each draw has grown by 250 each week, causing the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score requirements to go down.

Even though IRCC is expecting to welcome about 55,900 Express Entry candidates in 2022 and another 75,750 new applicants in 2023, the Express Entry target will go up to 111,500 by 2024.

Take this free assessment online to determine your eligibility for upcoming Express Entry draws for Canada PR. 

How to Predict Your Chances of Getting ITAs in the Upcoming Express Entry Draws?

You cannot rely on CRS scores to go down to get an ITA. Predicting ideal Express Entry CRS score for qualifying is difficult because – 

• IRCC does not publicize draw strategies in advance. 
• Type of candidates registered in the Express Entry pool will significantly affect qualifying CRS score. 
• For instance, an increase of PNP candidates or more high-scoring Express Entry candidates in the pool will affect score cutoffs.

There is a large number of Express Entry candidates in the pool with scores above 501, partially due to suppressed demand due to the pandemic. 

However, as more high-scoring candidates are entering the Express Entry pool, it is not fast enough to increase the CRS cutoff. As a result, the CRS score has continued to go down in recent Express Entry draws. 

Moving forward, IRCC is expected to hold Express Entry draws focused on an economic goal, such as occupation, or language competency. In that case, CRS scores and program types may  no longer be the only deciding factor for getting an ITA for Canada PR. 

In a parallel development, more Provincial Nominee Programs are seeking greater autonomy over immigration and more nominations to invite immigration candidates. Both Saskatchewan and Ontario are pushing the demand through.  

You may also read>> Brief analysis of Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) under Canada Express Entry system